Win by a Penny: How to Tighten Your Bid Without Racing to the Bottom

“Win by a penny” is a strategy, not a slogan

If you bid public work long enough, you learn the two painful moments:

• • Losing a job you wanted by a small margin
  • Winning a job and realizing you could have bid higher

Both are pricing strategy problems, not estimating effort problems.

Winning by a penny means:

• • You are not chasing the lowest number
  • You are trying to land as close as possible to the market-clearing price
  • You are doing it intentionally (not with a last-minute blanket cut)

Step 1: Keep your floor (do not break your own business)

Before you talk about tightening anything, write down your floor:

• • Cost to build (realistic production, not fantasy)
  • Risk allowances
  • Minimum acceptable margin

If the market range is below your floor, you do not “tighten.” You walk.

Step 2: Find the market range (job-level and item-level)

The biggest mistake contractors make when they tighten is tightening blind.

A usable market range comes from:

• • True comparables (same type of work and similar pay items)
  • Recent data (markets move)
  • Enough samples to see a distribution, not one outlier bid

The biggest mistake contractors make when they tighten is tightening blind.

Step 3: Tighten only where it matters (avoid blanket cuts)

Blanket cuts feel efficient. They are usually sloppy.

On unit-price work, the bid total moves because a handful of pay items move. Your goal is to identify the high-impact items and only adjust where you have signal.

Examples of high-impact items (varies by job):

• • Asphalt and base items
  • Concrete items
  • Excavation / disposal
  • Trucking / hauling
  • Large material items with market volatility

If you adjust 5-10 items well, you can move the bid materially without damaging the whole estimate.

On unit-price work, the bid total moves because a handful of pay items move.

Step 4: Tighten in a way that keeps you honest

A simple tightening method:

1. 1. For each high-impact item, compare your unit price to the market distribution.
   2. If you are materially above the cluster, ask why:

• • • Is your production different?
    • Is your haul unique?
    • Are your subs priced differently?
    • Are you carrying extra risk?

1. 3. If there is no clear reason, tighten toward the market (not below it).
   4. Recalculate your total and check that you are still above your floor.

This is not about “matching” competitors. It’s about not being an unintentional outlier.

Step 5: Decide how much to tighten based on competition density

Competition density is the difference between:

• • A 2-bidder market where you can hold margin
  • A 15-bidder market where you may need to sharpen to win

If you do not know the bidder count norms for an agency and scope, you are guessing.

Step 6: Do not tighten the wrong things

Avoid tightening:

• • Safety and compliance
  • Unknown risk
  • Schedule assumptions you cannot meet
  • Subcontractor scope you do not control

The market does not pay you for hidden risk you miss. Protect your floor.

Where PinPoint helps

PinPoint is built for the two inputs that make “win by a penny” possible:

• • Market range visibility (job-level and line-item level)
  • Competitor + market context (who is aggressive, how crowded it is)