The 15-Minute Bid-Day Gut Check: A Repeatable Workflow for Unit-Price Jobs

The 15-minute bid-day gut check (unit-price public work)

Most bid-day mistakes are not estimating mistakes.

They are decision mistakes made under time pressure:

• last-minute blanket cuts
• sharpening the wrong items
• bidding a job you had no shot at
• donating margin on a win

A simple gut check prevents most of them.

[Image: Hero – 4-question checklist graphic.]

The rules of the gut check

• 15 minutes max (if it takes longer, you will not do it consistently)
• focus on the 10-20 pay items that swing the total
• compare to the market range, not one random past bid
• capture one note so you can learn after bid day

The 4 questions (the whole gut check)

1) Are we in the market range on the items that move the job?

Pick the high-impact items (asphalt, concrete, earthwork, trucking, etc.)

Compare your unit price to what similar items have sold for in your market recently.

If you are outside the range, ask why.

[Image: Line item compare (IMG-02).]

2) How crowded is this bid likely to be?

Crowded bids mean pricing pressure.

If the agency routinely draws 15+ bidders, your “hold margin” default is different.

Read next:

• /resources/contractors/market-competitor-intelligence/two-bidders-vs-twenty/

3) If we win, are we likely to win close?

This is the margin protection question.

If your number is far below the market cluster, you may be donating profit.

Read next:

• /resources/contractors/pricing-margin-confidence/money-left-on-the-table/

4) If we lose, is it likely to be close?

If you are just barely outside the likely win zone, a selective tighten can flip it.

If you are far outside, do not panic-cut your bid. You are solving the wrong problem.

The 5-minute “post-bid note” (do not skip this)

After bid day, write down:

• result (won/lost)
• gap (tight / medium / blowout)
• 1-2 pay items you suspect drove the outcome
• 1 thing to do differently next time

This is what turns gut checks into improvement.

Where PinPoint fits

The gut check requires fast access to:

• market comps (job and line item)
• a market range / likely winning zone
• competition context (how crowded, who shows up)

PinPoint provides this layer:

• /estimating-support-software/bid-intelligence
• /estimating-support-software/historical-bid-search
• /estimating-support-software/competitor-insights